Antidote for Fake Everything

In this digital era, anything can be faked; followers, news, experts, emails, and so on.  The possibilities are limited only by the imagination of the faker.  It turns out that these issues were addressed back in 1996, by Carl Sagan, the world-famous astronomer.  His context was UFOs, but his formula for separating facts from fiction is even more applicable today.  He called his 9-step process “The Fine Art of Baloney Detection” and described it in his best-selling book, The Demon-Haunted World.  Here is a summary:

1. Whenever possible, there must be independent confirmation of the “facts”
2. Encourage substantive debate on the evidence by knowledgeable proponents
3. Do not overweight arguments from so-called authorities
4. Spin more than one hypothesis for the evidence
5. Try not to get too attached to your own hypothesis
6. Quantify competing hypotheses
7. If using a chained argument, every link must work
8. Occam’s Razor:  choose the simpler of two hypotheses
9. Can the hypothesis be tested?

Keep this list in mind when you are confronted with information that may have significant consequences for you.